As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Solar activity has increased. Now we have returned to B levels looking at the GOES X-Ray Flux.

Below I have posted a solar image showing what appears to be the former Beta-Delta-Gamma AR2673 that harbored energy for two X-ray flares: X9.3 and X8.2 slightly more than two weeks ago. This sunspot area is in the Southern Hemisphere of the Sun (Solar Cycle 25).

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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While NASA says that former region AR2673 is scheduled to return September 20 (today) through the 23, Belgium says that it is AR2676 that has already returned this morning and is actively B flaring with a chance of C flares. Both Active Regions are in the Southern Hemisphere.

This returning active region AR2676 appears to have an alpha configuration, but more will be revealed as it comes fully over the limb.

However, I am beginning to wonder if AR2676 is being confused for AR2673.

The newly returned AR2676 has been newly renamed AR2681, which is now located at S12E73.

AR2673 has had an S09 latitude. and one would expect that it would remain at that same S09 latitude when it returns, but NOAA is showing that AR2676 had an S09 latitude. Obviously, someone has made a typographical error.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 261 Issued at 0030Z on 18 Sep 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2680 N08W27 317 0080 Hax 02 03 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Sep
Nmbr Location Lo None
II. Regions Due to Return 18 Sep to 20 Sep
Nmbr Lat Lo
2675 S07 197
2676 S09 185

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Compare this data today, September 21, 2017 at 0030 UT.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 264 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Sep 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2680 N08W67 318 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
2681 S12E73 178 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Sep
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 21 Sep to 23 Sep
Nmbr Lat Lo
2673 S09 139
2674 N13 121

Reference: http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/ ... 921SRS.txt

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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From Belgium: http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

The top of the loops from the returning region
Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA active region 2673), which was very active
in the previous rotation, will start to be seen at the west limb tomorrow,
on Sept 23. We expect the solar activity to remain low until the return of
Catania sunspot group 46 (NOAA active region 2673). Then we expect the
activity to increase with C to M-class flare
.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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From Belgium: http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

The top of the loops from the returning region Catania sunspot group
46 (NOAA active region 2673), from which a B3.0-class flare (Sept 23 at
06:03 UT) is attributed, is now visible at the east solar limb. We expect
the solar activity to increase due to this returning region with C-class
flares. As this region was very active with several X-class flares during
the previous solar rotation, we cannot exclude the possibility of M to
X-class flares to occur. Once the foot-points of the loops will be visible,
a better estimation of its magnetic complexity will be made and we will be
able to better estimate the probability of flaring activity.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed and the solar protons remained at
background level over the past 24 hours.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

From Belgium:

The returning region NOAA active region 2682 (previously,
Catania sunspot group 46, NOAA active region 2673) is now on the visible
disc and is the source of the slow-speed CME and B-class flaring activity.
Its magnetic complexity is difficult to estimate due to the projection
effect, however, it seems to have drastically decay from the previous solar
rotation. We expect the solar activity to increase due to the return of
this region with C-class flares.

Just a guestimate: It looks like AR 2682 (formerly AR2673) might have been reduced to an alpha.
We still could be in for a surprise if this sunspot drastically increases over the next few days.
However, during solar minimums, returning sunspots typically decay and some are reduced to
insignificant plages.

NOAA will advise at 5:30 PM PDT (0030 UT) tonight.

From http://www.spaceweather.com

A POTENT SUNSPOT IN THE OFFING? In early September, monster sunspot AR2673 emerged with shocking speed and proceeded to unleash a pair of decade-class solar flares. The resulting severe geomagnetic storms sparked Northern Lights in the USA as far south as Arkansas on Sept. 8th. Now, the sunspot is coming back. The bright loops in this photo from NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory herald its approach:

Image

For the past two weeks, AR2673 has been transiting the backside of the sun, carried around by the sun's 27-day rotation. It is due to return in the next day or so. The loops, shown above, trace the AR2673's towering magnetic canopy, coming into view before the sunspot itself. Will it be as potent as before? Probably not, but stay tuned!

Look at the photo above, in the Northern Hemisphere, not too far from AR2682, there is another returning sunspot (former AR2674). This one appears to be more menacing from the emerging photos shown on The Sun Today.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

From NOAA, September 25, 2017 at 0030 UT - http://legacy-www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu ... s/SRS.html

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 268 Issued at 0030Z on 25 Sep 2017
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 24 Sep
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2681 S13E19 179 0090 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
2682 S09E71 127 0180 Hsx 03 01 Alpha [Former AR2673]
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 24/2400Z Sep
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 25 Sep to 27 Sep
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

Former AR2674 is now barely visible on the left limb of the sun. It is in the Northern Hemisphere of the Sun, whereas former AR2673 (now renamed as AR2682) is in the Southern Hemisphere. I will update this image in a couple of hours so you can see this returning sunspot more clearly.

From what I see so far, former AR2674 looks like it might be a Beta. It is huge. Later on, I will post Belgium's 1230 UT report as they can see it more clearly.

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