As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Here is the latest comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant
flares have been recorded. There are currently no significant Active
Regions on the solar disk. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)
have been detected. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at
background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to
remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares
and a low probability of M-class flares.
The solar wind speed fluctuated between 380 to 420 km/s over the past 24
hours. The total magnetic field strength has fluctuated around 5 nT. The Bz
component fluctuated around 0 nT, ranging between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic
conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-2
(Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be
quiet.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 000, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

http://www.sidc.be/products/meu/

Note: Even with a spotless sun, and even during a solar minimum, we could experience a sudden and unespected strong flare if a long magnetic filament should rise up from the solar surface and then snap with an explosive force. This is why Belgium makes the comment "Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a low probability of C-class flares and a low probability of M-class flares." Sudden impulsive solar flares do affect our weather patterns on earth because they heat up the ionosphere. Could man be interfering with space and our weather patterns? Certainly. Think lasers.

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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2018 10 01 2018.749 17 2.1 33 39
2018 10 02 2018.752 15 1.9 30 35
2018 10 03 2018.755 13 1.6 36 45
2018 10 04 2018.758 11 1.7 27 42
2018 10 05 2018.760 0 0.0 44 47
2018 10 06 2018.763 0 0.0 32 35
2018 10 07 2018.766 0 0.0 31 32
2018 10 08 2018.768 0 0.0 38 38
2018 10 09 2018.771 0 0.0 41 43
2018 10 10 2018.774 0 0.0 38 40
2018 10 11 2018.777 7 4.6 25 31
2018 10 12 2018.779 16 4.8 34 44
2018 10 13 2018.782 26 6.2 31 36
2018 10 14 2018.785 23 3.1 30 37
2018 10 15 2018.788 11 8.1 32 34
2018 10 16 2018.790 0 0.0 34 38
2018 10 17 2018.793 11 1.2 22 35
2018 10 18 2018.796 0 0.0 33 34
2018 10 19 2018.799 0 0.0 34 34
2018 10 20 2018.801 0 0.0 32 32
2018 10 21 2018.804 0 0.0 25 36
2018 10 22 2018.807 0 0.0 32 37

Note: observations of the sun showed that it remained spotless from 10-22-2018 to 10-31-2018.
How long will this spotless trend continue in the month of November 2018?

The text message from Belgium above shows 21 spotless days with an average mean of 4.9.
The adjusted chart below from Belgium shows 20 spotless days with an average mean of 4.9.

Attachments
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 11-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png
Daily Sunspot Plot thru 11-01-2018_EISNcurrent.png (39.78 KiB) Viewed 7109 times

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Maria
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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS IN THE OFFING: A large hole in the sun's atmosphere is turning to face Earth, and it is spewing a stream of solar wind toward our planet. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the structure on Nov. 7th:

Image

This is a "coronal hole," a place where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape. It looks dark because the glowing hot plasma normally contained there is missing--in this case, en route to Earth. Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 10th.

VIsit: http://www.spaceweather.com for November 7, 2018

For a current image of this massive coronal hole, see: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... 4_0193.jpg

Notice that there seems to be something coming around the bend in this solar image. It could be another H-alpha plage, but whatever it is, the sun's activity according to GOES X-ray flux shows increased agitation in the A1 to A2 range.
See: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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We have had an active region AR2726 that has appeared only to disappear again. This ephemeral area, AR 2726, has appeared once again, but is rapidly decaying now. Will it come back? Never say never.

Note: this is perfectly normal during a solar minimum.

Here is the Royal Observatory of Belgium's daily comment for today:

COMMENT: Beta region NOAA 2726 has emerged on November 11 but is
disintegrating fast. There were no flares on the visible solar disc of the
Sun in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is
estimated at only 2%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The Earth is currently under the influence of a high speed stream
associated with a negative equatorial coronal hole. Solar wind speed near
Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 520 and 640 km/s in the
past 24 hours, with current values around 550 km/s. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed towards the Sun and its
magnitude varied between about 0 and 7 nT. Bz was never below -6 nT. Solar
wind speed is expected to decrease over the next days.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 3; NOAA
Kp between 1 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to active
geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 5) are expected on November 12, with a
slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on November 13 and 14.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 07 STATIONS.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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AR 2726 persists, and consistent with this observation, the GOES X-ray flux shows continuous solar activity in the A1 to A2 range.

Here is Belgium's EISN text message for today showing the observed sunspots for November 2018 with the average mean being 3.5.

2018 11 01 2018.834 0 0.0 20 21
2018 11 02 2018.837 0 0.0 34 34
2018 11 03 2018.840 0 0.0 31 31
2018 11 04 2018.842 0 0.0 28 30
2018 11 05 2018.845 0 0.0 31 31
2018 11 06 2018.848 0 0.0 27 28
2018 11 07 2018.851 0 0.0 28 28
2018 11 08 2018.853 0 4.1 24 35
2018 11 09 2018.856 11 1.4 17 25
2018 11 10 2018.859 0 0.0 8 12
2018 11 11 2018.862 0 0.0 19 22
2018 11 12 2018.864 15 1.6 13 15
2018 11 13 2018.867 11 1.1 24 28

Below is Belgium's Royal Observatory Daily Comment.

COMMENT: There were no flares on the visible solar disc of the Sun in the
past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated
at only 2%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR
rose from about 550 to 650 km/s and then decreased to current values around
475 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly
directed towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 7 nT.
Bz was never below -5 nT. Solar wind speed is expected to further decrease
over the next days.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1
and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions
(K Dourbes < 4) are expected on November 13, 14 and 15.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 011, BASED ON 17 STATIONS.

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

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Belgium's Royal Observatory comments for today: New Beta region is AR2727

COMMENT: A new beta region has emerged near disc centre. There were no
flares on the visible solar disc of the Sun in the past 24 hours. The
chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 10%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available
coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24
hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR
varied between about 365 and 460 km/s, with current values around 405 km/s.
The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly directed towards
the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 0 and 6 nT. Bz was never
below -5 nT.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0
and 1) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions
(K Dourbes < 4) are expected on November 15, 16 and 17.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 014, BASED ON 18 STATIONS.

If you wish to see his tiny beta sunspot, please visit: https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/la ... _HMIIF.jpg

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Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

This morning, Active Region AR2727 has increased in size and in numbers of sunspots. Earlier it showed 18 sunspots, but as of this moment, it is showing a gradual decay down to 17.

Will AR2727 increase again in activity and in size tomorrow as it approaches the rim of the sun? We still have at least three more days before this active region goes to the far side of the sun.

Below is the EISN text message from Belgium. The average mean is currently hovering around 6.0, but if no more active regions develop, the projected monthly mean could be between 3.3 to 5.1. So far, this current text message indicates that we have had about 9 to 10 spotless days. November 8 will probably be ruled to have had at least four to five sunspots judging from the standard deviation of 4.1 and 11 outliers (difference between total station reports less those accepted). 36 - 25 = 11 outliers.

2018 11 01 2018.834 0 0.0 20 21
2018 11 02 2018.837 0 0.0 34 34
2018 11 03 2018.840 0 0.0 31 31
2018 11 04 2018.842 0 0.0 28 30
2018 11 05 2018.845 0 0.0 31 31
2018 11 06 2018.848 0 0.0 27 28
2018 11 07 2018.851 0 0.0 28 28
2018 11 08 2018.853 0 4.1 25 36
2018 11 09 2018.856 11 1.4 18 27
2018 11 10 2018.859 0 0.0 08 12
2018 11 11 2018.862 0 0.0 19 22
2018 11 12 2018.864 15 1.6 16 18
2018 11 13 2018.867 12 1.1 28 32
2018 11 14 2018.870 11 1.3 29 36
2018 11 15 2018.873 14 1.6 29 31
2018 11 16 2018.875 15 2.8 13 15
2018 11 17 2018.878 17 1.2 06 07

The GOES X-ray flux for yesterday, November 16, 2018, showed several high Solar Class A flaring almost rising to the B level.
This morning around 0910 UT a flare rose to almost an A4 Class Flare. It is still actively flaring in the A3 range as I type.
With the current upward trend of solar activity, AR2727 could produce a B or even C flare sometime this morning.

See: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Below is a picture of AR2727 (equatorial right hand side of sun) flaring with arcing lines between its 17 sunspots.
Although this active region is small in comparison with those occurring during a solar peak, it is news-breaking during a solar minimum.

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solar image_11-17-2018_AR2726.jpg
solar image_11-17-2018_AR2726.jpg (151.21 KiB) Viewed 6969 times

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