As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Non-political secular news and anything else (within the boundaries of Christian morality and good taste) that is not on-topic in any other section. Any politically charged material must be posted in the private Political and Social Issues forum; please PM admin for access. All Forum Rules apply. No polemics. No heated discussions. No name-calling.
Post Reply
User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

All three Betas have increased in size and in strength. AR2714 is nearest the Western Limb of the sun and will be departing in the next few days. It appears to be the smallest of the three, but it is actively B flaring.

The Royal Observatory at Belgium has estimated the sunspot number (EISN) for June 20, 2018 to be 57, while the average EISN for the month of June is approximately 14. No doubt, this average mean will increase as the three Betas travel across the sun.

The GOES X-ray flux shows that the output of the sun is now in the low B-range. We could have C flaring. Two sunspots have been actively flaring: AR2714 and the rapidly developing AR2715. If they unleash CMEs, these could be geo-centered (AR2715) or geo-directed (AR2714).

Date: 2018 06 20

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

#

Missing data: ////

Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2018 Jun 20

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6230 + 0000 0006 0011 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.8 8.5E-05 2714

6240 + 0356 0425 0433 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.8 3.0E-04 2715

Here is one image of the sun which shows how large these Betas are:

06-20-2018_Three Betas 2713, 2714, 2715_1530 UT.jpg
06-20-2018_Three Betas 2713, 2714, 2715_1530 UT.jpg (15.13 KiB) Viewed 1009 times

Below is another image of the sun showing the three Betas along with a developing region at the Eastern Limb.
Will this area (possibly the return of AR2712) develop further or will it remain a plage?

solar image_06-20-2018_three Betas and one developing.jpg
solar image_06-20-2018_three Betas and one developing.jpg (154.54 KiB) Viewed 1009 times

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

solar image_06-21-2018_0045 UT_Three Betas 2713, 2714, 2715_1530 UT.jpg
solar image_06-21-2018_0045 UT_Three Betas 2713, 2714, 2715_1530 UT.jpg (15.18 KiB) Viewed 1005 times

From NOAA: The region at the Eastern Limb appears to be a plage. AR2712 did not return as expected.
However, all three Betas have increased in area and in strength. AR2715 has become a monster as it approaches the center of the sun.

Issued: 2018 Jun 21 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 172 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2713 N05W38 288 0040 Dso 06 09 Beta
2714 N08W67 317 0030 Cro 06 03 Beta
2715 N08E20 230 0110 Dai 06 12 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 21 Jun to 23 Jun
Nmbr Lat Lo
None

We just had an impressive impulsive solar flare rated C2.1 at 0115 UTC 06-21-2018

Here is the data from 6-20-2018.
Notice that all the Betas have been flaring with Beta AR2715 unleashing three B-class solar flares.

:Created: 2018 Jun 21 0027 UT
:Date: 2018 06 20

Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

Please send comments and suggestions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov

#

Missing data: ////

Updated every 5 minutes.

Edited Events for 2018 Jun 20

#
#Event Begin Max End Obs Q Type Loc/Frq Particulars Reg#
#-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6230 + 0000 0006 0011 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.8 8.5E-05 2714

6240 + 0356 0425 0433 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.8 3.0E-04 2715

6250 + 1157 1202 1205 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B1.8 5.8E-05 2713

6260 + 1928 1935 1939 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B6.3 2.4E-04 2715

6270 + 2258 2303 2307 G15 5 XRA 1-8A B2.6 9.5E-05 2715

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

AR2715 continues to increase and now it is geocentered with a potential to unleash M class solar flares (5 % per NOAA) within the next 24 to 48 hours. The area has increased from 110 to 160.

While AR2713 has also increased in size from 40 to 70, AR2714 is departing this side of the sun.

Click this link to view the Solar Class C2.1 flare unleashed at 0115 UT on 6-21-2018. http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php ... &year=2018

The latest from NOAA:

Issued: 2018 Jun 22 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 173 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2713 N05W52 288 0070 Dso 08 08 Beta
2714 N08W80 316 0010 Bxo 05 02 Beta
2715 N08E06 230 0160 Dao 06 13 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

From NOAA:

Issued: 2018 Jun 23 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 174 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2713 N05W64 287 0070 Dao 09 06 Beta
2715 N08W08 231 0110 Dac 05 15 Beta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None

GOES X-Ray Flux shows only B-flaring, but NOAA warns that there is a chance of an M-flare within the next 48 hours from AR2715, which is now geo-centered. AR2713 will soon be departing, and might (not likely) unleash a flare that is geo-directive.

solar image_06-23-2018_Center-Beta AR2715_Right-Beta AR2713_Blackness-Coronal holes .jpg
solar image_06-23-2018_Center-Beta AR2715_Right-Beta AR2713_Blackness-Coronal holes .jpg (134.37 KiB) Viewed 980 times

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Comments from Belgium indicate a low risk of any solar flares with the exception of some C-flaring.

Currently, GOES-X-ray flux shows consistent flaring in the low B levels. In the past, such low B levels could lead to C-flaring or even one or two M flares. The last significant flaring peaked at 14:38:00 UTC and registered a B4.7 on June 23, 2018. Notice the gradual upward trend of the red line on the graph. This is significant and indicates increased solar activity.

AR2714 is now on the far side of the sun, and AR2713 will soon follow. If AR2713 unleashes a significant flare or a CME, it most likely will be geo-directive.

Attachments
06-23-2018_Betas AR2713 and 2715 flaring in the B levels_goes-xray-flux.gif
06-23-2018_Betas AR2713 and 2715 flaring in the B levels_goes-xray-flux.gif (12.5 KiB) Viewed 965 times

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Beware AR2715 as it is now a Beta-Delta with a 5 percent chance of an M-flare.
A few hours ago, AR2715 blasted us with a B8.6 solar class flare at 01:45:00 UTC on June 24, 2018.

Newest warning from NOAA:

Issued: 2018 Jun 24 0030 UTC

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 175 Issued at 0030Z on 24 Jun 2018
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 23 Jun
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
2713 N05W79 289 0070 Dao 10 06 Beta
2715 N08W21 231 0120 Dac 05 08 Beta-Delta

IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 23/2400Z Jun
Nmbr Location Lo
None

UPDATE: Looking at the latest GOES X-ray flux, there is a chance of another significant solar flare as the trend is now upward.

View this X-ray flux live at: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

Attachments
06-24-2018_B8.6_0145 UT_AR2715 Beta-Delta_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif
06-24-2018_B8.6_0145 UT_AR2715 Beta-Delta_goes-xray-flux-6-hour.gif (10.39 KiB) Viewed 955 times

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

User avatar
Maria
Archon
Posts: 8428
Joined: Fri 11 June 2004 8:39 pm
Faith: True Orthodox Christian
Jurisdiction: GOC
Location: USA

Re: As the Sun Turns: Solar Minimums and Maximums

Post by Maria »

Latest comment from Belgium's Royal Observatory:

COMMENT: The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. Catania
sunspot group 86 & 88 (NOAA active region 2713 and 2715) produced few
B-class flares. The magnetic complexity of Catania sunspot group 86 (NOAA
active region 2715) has slightly increased (from beta to beta-delta Hale
class), therefor it has a high chance of producing C-class flare with
potentially, but less likely, a M-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection has been observed. The greater than
10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours
and is expected to remain so.

The Earth remained under the influence of the solar wind associated with
the north pole coronal hole that has passed the central meridian on the
June 20.
The wind speed values reached 510 km/s on June 23 around 23:30 UT,
and is currently around 490 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field has
slowly converged toward its nominal condition. Currently the total magnetic
field strength below 5 nT and the southward component fluctuating between
-3 and +2 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to return to the slow
regime within the next two days.

The geomagnetic conditions have been unsettled to active over the past 24
hours due to the ongoing enhancement of the solar wind with K-index
(Dourbes) and Kp-index (NOAA) ranging between 2 and 4. Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions are expected with possible short active periods for
the next day.

TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 024, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

Lord Jesus Christ, have mercy on me a sinner.

Post Reply