Iran commentary by top observers

[Barbara]

Oh NO !!! I was HOPING it was just a BLUFF !
I just got to the computer, saw a few things, like Burj al Khalifa in Dubai being attacked. I have to catch up more later.

Meanwhile this analysis from a Frenchman who is more objective than American or other average media sources - this popped up :

"Donald Trump has fallen into a trap set by Iranian, Russian, and Chinese strategists.

The US Army and IDF will literally exhaust themselves and get crushed in a war against a regional military superpower that has meticulously prepared for war over the past 20 years.

The Iranian cauldron will quietly grind down the military installations of its enemies in the region.

Iran's full missile arsenal is capable of inflicting significant human and material losses on the United States and Israel.

The military-industrial complexes of China and Russia can supply the Iranian army for months with ultra-modern weapons that neither the United States nor Israel possess."

https://x.com/remi_philiponet/status/20 ... 7933752788

[Barbara]

[They] fell into a Trap Set by #Iranian #and Russian Strategists:

America and Israel launched an attack
with more than 400 aircraft—at least from the original 800 that were on standby
to wipe Iran off the map.

The surprise: Iran was waiting for them, its skies saturated with air defenses and digital bombs that forced the American air force into
random strikes from outside Iranian airspace.

After an hour of repelling the airstrike,Iran launched a counterattack
unlike anything the United States has seen before: a series of massive, simultaneous, and wide-ranging airstrikes on its military bases abroad, like those Iran carried out today.

An American official told The Wall Street Journal that the U.S. military is shocked by Iran's capabilities, which targeted all its bases in the region.

And so far, the Iranians have attacked U.S. bases in Jordan, Iraq, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

But what is Iran's most important military goal beyond bombing U.S. bases in Gulf countries?
The top target was destroying the American radars in the Gulf and northern Israel—and it was achieved.

Among what was destroyed
was the largest U.S. radar in the region, an FP-132 model with a range of 5,000 kilometers, located in Qatar, equipped with unique gear used to track ballistic missiles. It was completely destroyed.

The radar cost $1.1 billion, and the Zionists used it to intercept missiles headed to Israel in the past Unio war.

After the radars' destruction, Israel and U.S. aircraft carriers became exposed, in total chaos, and Iran seized the initiative by launching its Hashmi missiles toward the entity
as the starting signal—and these aren't the main strike package of missiles.

And yet, at least 18 THAAD and Patriot air defense systems failed to intercept the Iranian missile strikes on the entity state, which lost its air defense vision due to Iranian electronic raids.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard continued its missile strikes against Israeli cities, ports, government buildings, and intelligence devices.

Once again, these aren't the main missiles.

The precision ones, the most dangerous, are liquid-fuel systems, highly accurate, with heavy payloads, scheduled for launch at the right time.

Trump is now in a state of shock—his U.S. military pride has burned, and his stealth plane
digital radars made it an easy target for Iran's missiles.

In a moment like this, wars aren't measured by the number of planes or the size of missiles, but by who controls the rhythm.

What happened wasn't just a military clash, but a revolution in the deterrence equation:
The White House has fallen silent, searching for a counterattack to restore some prestige.

Today, it wasn't just a radar worth billions that fell, but the geopolitical map changed too. China, monitoring U.S. military asset movements and sending them to Iran, has become a party to the war at a time when military intelligence outvalues missiles.

China realizes Iran is just a pretext, and the top American target is besieging Beijing and cutting off the land route China aims to use to reach West Asia via Iran through Afghanistan.
And at the same time, concepts are being redrawn.
Take the UAE, for example—it has officially lost its appeal as a safe haven for capital.

What billionaire would want to live in Dubai or Abu Dhabi after Iran's missiles shattered their glass cities?

Real estate prices will plummet sharply for at least five years. Good luck to the UAE ruler, sponsor of the Abrahamic religion and godfather of the CORS agreement.

On the Russian level,
Ukraine will now face wide-ranging attacks from Tsar Putin. Even Taiwan has become an open theater for China while America struggles to avoid drowning in the Strait of Hormuz.

[eish]

I found this dashboard searching through rightwing chatter. It's an automatic AI-summary of online discussions/reports/rumours.

https://signalcockpit.com/

Now, beware these “top observers.” They, too, have agendas and are being operated by Iran, Russia, and China, just as the pro-“Israel” commentators are operated by the US, “Israel,” and EU. The reporting is simply too optimistic to be taken seriously.

The situation is very ugly. The Israelis are attempting to perform a checkmate on the world stage in order to begin the global rule of Antichrist. They are attempting to eliminate their rivals so that they can enthrone the false messiah, execute all Christians, enslave all gentiles, and begin their utopia in which every Jew is supposed, by rabbinic prophesy, to live as fat pigs in perfect luxury with 2800 slaves apiece. Turning every one of their neighbours into a desolate hellscape is simply necessary for them to feel secure in it. Everything they have planned, they have said openly for years and years. Not just Jews. Evangelicals want the exact same thing only more rabidly and so do the Calvinists over here (who aren't even real Calvinists anymore after they copied everything they overheard US Evangelicals teaching).

That doesn't mean that it will work, only that it is the goal of the leaders.

I don't support the government of Iran. Islam is evil. Shia has transgenderism and everything. They aren't the “traditionalists” that Western dissidents think they are. Having said that, it is impossible to support the enthronement of Antichrist while being a Christian. This fallen world will never be a Christian world before the Lord comes; it is not necessary nor achievable to fight heathenry around the world for the sake of utopia. In fact, wanting to fight heathen governments around the world simply for being heathen is Chiliasm per se.

So in summary: The war is evil. The US & Israeli governments are evil. Not just a little evil. Not even broad evil like general antichrist movements--which both the USSR and communism, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Islam are and were---but evil in the sense of a direct, immediate and knowing attempt to enthrone THE Antichrist RIGHT NOW.

If I were a US soldier, I would not even care about refusing to serve as a general conscientious objection. What I would care about would be refusing to serve for fear of being eternally damned as a willing servant of Antichrist, along with all those yet to take his mark. That's serious business. It's not a chance I would want to take. Enjoy your socialist free college.

Once again I repeat: that doesn't mean that it will succeed. It is an attempt, attempt implies intent, and intent matters in law and morals.

Rightwing chatter is very heavily biased in favour of Iran. Depending on which sources you read, you can easily convince yourself that the US is getting obliterated, which is apparently not the case. Despite their admirable strength and inflicting serious damage, Iran is taking a very heavy beating. We will see. God's will be done.

The saints were right about the Reds being antichrist, I guess what I'm saying is that in hindsight we see that antichrist has gotten more antichrist than what was previously imaginable. Perhaps even what we see on the horizon today is still not nearly as antichrist as antichrist will get in the end. Lord have mercy.

P.S. Purim has begun. Expect something serious from the US to please its master over this night and tomorrow.

[Barbara]

While letting some of that sink in, here's a summary so far. Yes, it seems the entire internet is pro-Iran.

"Iran's Air Base Campaign: Why US Strikes on Iran Are Already Fading?

Iran cannot match the US or Israel plane for plane. It does not need to. What it is doing instead is methodically degrading the infrastructure that makes sustained US air strikes possible. The result is a US air campaign that looks overwhelming today but will be severely constrained within 7-14 days. Most observers underestimate this because they focus on aircraft losses rather than the logistics chain that keeps those aircraft flying.

What Iran Has Hit (Confirmed Damage)

Iran has struck every major US regional land base involved in Operation Epic Fury support or staging:

• Al Udeid (Qatar): Primary CENTCOM air operations centre. Satellite comms terminals destroyed, runway damage, 3 US airmen killed.
• Al Dhafra (UAE): F-35/F-16 hub. Hangars hit, ISR aircraft grounded.
• Fifth Fleet HQ / NSA Bahrain: Command node. Roof collapses, comms blackout.
• Ali Al Salem & Camp Arifjan (Kuwait): Refuelling and logistics. Terminal fires, 2 US killed.
• Erbil (Iraq): Drone hub. US consulate damaged, MQ-9 operations suspended.

Israel Bases Hit
Nevatim, Hatzerim, Ramon. F-35 losses confirmed (3 aircraft), runway craters, maintenance facilities burning. Israeli sortie rate down 60 percent.

New Hits: Cyprus & Jordan

• RAF Akrotiri (Cyprus): RC-135 Rivet Joint intel planes staged here after Al Udeid. Drone strike Sunday, runway damage, 2 drones intercepted Monday.
• Muwaffaq Salti (Jordan): F-35s, F-15Es, A-10s, tankers. Multiple missile hits, THAAD battery engaged.

What Iran Claims (Lincoln Hit)
IRGC says four ballistic missiles struck USS Abraham Lincoln. CENTCOM denies. Lincoln continues ops but repositioned further east. Eisenhower unconfirmed but operating at max range.

What Remains Untouched

• Diego Garcia: B-2 bombers only. Out of range.
• US Carriers: Lincoln/Eisenhower in Arabian Sea. Vulnerable but operational.
• UK Lakenheath/Fairford: F-22s staged. UK denies offensive use.

What This Means for US Air Power

Iran hit the sustainment layer, not the fighters themselves. No land base is safe for staging heavy jets within 1,000 miles of Iran. Refuelling tankers cannot loiter over Gulf. ISR coverage degraded 70 percent. Satellite relays down.

Timeline of Constraint

• Now: Sortie rate 50 percent of peak. Carriers carry load.
• 7 Days: Land bases fully defensive. Carrier ops at max range (limited ordnance). Drones/B-2s only for high value targets.
• 14 Days: Carriers rotate or risk saturation. No safe tanker orbits. Air campaign becomes sporadic.

Iran's Airspace Recovery
Iran regains control not by matching F-35s but by denying US the forward infrastructure. S-300/400 batteries reload. Fighter patrols resume. Airspace contested, not denied. Enough to protect regime survival.

US retains deep strike capability but loses sustained suppression. Iran buys time, survives the storm. Conventional air dominance erodes to parity."
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[eish]

Bit of a nonpolitical question to lighten the mood.

Three US F-15s were recently shot down over Kuwait. There's video all over, including of one of the pilots receiving a beating. Official story from the US & Kuwait is that this was a friendly fire incident of Kuwaiti AA accidentally shooting down three planes independently. I've been holding it in for the dust to clear and now I'll give my two cents.

Read this analysis first:

f15_ff_incident.png (124.39 KiB) Viewed 13 times

A reasonable response, very well said. I have something more to add: Kuwait is a US vassal using US weapons.

Modern electronically controlled weapons systems have friend-or-foe identification systems (IFF) which help protect against firing on the users' own planes, but also prohibiting its use against the country which supplies the system. This is not a new concept. It was said to be how Britain defeated Argentina in the Falklands almost half a century ago.*

It would have been nigh impossible for the Kuwaitis to have accidentally shot down American planes with American missile systems, as those systems would have attempted to initiate communications with the target aircraft--which would have responded with a kind of a “password” prohibiting the air defence systems from attacking them.

I'm unsure if I buy the idea of an Iranian plane being present to shoot them down. It still sounds more plausible than three friendly fire kills.

*Argentina sunk a British warship, creating much uproar, although they probably wouldn't have won anyway. “Mad Maggie” Thatcher somehow got the French to hand over the codes to the French-made missiles, which rendered further attacks impotent and they just made up stories about shooting down the missiles. It is widely alleged in geopolitical circles that she threatened France with starting a full-scale nuclear attack on Argentina unless they handed over the codes to let her win. Insert joke about “France surrendered.” This is not an officially acknowledged version of events, but it would never be acknowledged even if completely true, as it would ruin the reputation of French weapons exports. It should be remembered, however, that even if the story may not be true the capability to do this does exist in missile exports and for some reason idiot governments keep buying weapons from other governments who can switch them off remotely. If it's not your computer in your missile, it's not your missile. Kinda like buying a Tesla.

[SavaBeljovic]

Bit of a nonpolitical question to lighten the mood.

Three US F-15s were recently shot down over Kuwait. There's video all over, including of one of the pilots receiving a beating. Official story from the US & Kuwait is that this was a friendly fire incident of Kuwaiti AA accidentally shooting down three planes independently. I've been holding it in for the dust to clear and now I'll give my two cents.

Read this analysis first:

f15_ff_incident.png

A reasonable response, very well said. I have something more to add: Kuwait is a US vassal using US weapons.

Modern electronically controlled weapons systems have friend-or-foe identification systems (IFF) which help protect against firing on the users' own planes, but also prohibiting its use against the country which supplies the system. This is not a new concept. It was said to be how Britain defeated Argentina in the Falklands almost half a century ago.*

It would have been nigh impossible for the Kuwaitis to have accidentally shot down American planes with American missile systems, as those systems would have attempted to initiate communications with the target aircraft--which would have responded with a kind of a “password” prohibiting the air defence systems from attacking them.

I'm unsure if I buy the idea of an Iranian plane being present to shoot them down. It still sounds more plausible than three friendly fire kills.

*Argentina sunk a British warship, creating much uproar, although they probably wouldn't have won anyway. “Mad Maggie” Thatcher somehow got the French to hand over the codes to the French-made missiles, which rendered further attacks impotent and they just made up stories about shooting down the missiles. It is widely alleged in geopolitical circles that she threatened France with starting a full-scale nuclear attack on Argentina unless they handed over the codes to let her win. Insert joke about “France surrendered.” This is not an officially acknowledged version of events, but it would never be acknowledged even if completely true, as it would ruin the reputation of French weapons exports. It should be remembered, however, that even if the story may not be true the capability to do this does exist in missile exports and for some reason idiot governments keep buying weapons from other governments who can switch them off remotely. If it's not your computer in your missile, it's not your missile. Kinda like buying a Tesla.

I saw this and immediately thought myself: Those planes were not shot down with SAMs, as there wouldn't be much left. I seriously doubt it was an Iranian fighter that snuck in Kuwaiti airspace -- as that would have likely been shot down by air defense.

I think possibly it could be smaller MANPAD systems that took those planes down. The F-15 is a rather aged design; during the Iraq War, insurgent forces in Tikrit were able to shoot an F-15 down with a MANPAD (likely a Strela-2, Soviet design). Another F-15 was successfully downed by Iraqi Air Defense during the Gulf War using normal anti-aircraft emplacement guns with flak munitions.

There are IFF and MWS systems on the F-15, but just from a cursory glance, it appears the Kuwaiti Land Forces have a lot of Soviet weaponry, which of course wouldn't register NATO IFF systems (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuwait_La ... #Equipment) and also according to Wikipedia the Strela-2 -- the most widely produced and used of Soviet MANPAD weaponry -- is used by Kuwait (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K32_Strela-2#Operators).

I'm curious what an official investigation will determine, this is my "working theory" so to speak.

post-scriptum: I know many will say, "how did trained pilots get shot down by a weapon system that should be easy to avoid?" I think this issue was likely caused by the fact they were over friendly airspace and weren't paying attention. Once again, an official investigation will likely find the truth of what occurred.

[eish]

...

A plausible working theory. I much prefer it over an Iranian plane somehow flying around unseen, like some kind of stealth fighter with an invisibility cloak added.

It does, however, leave me a lot of questions around the use of the weapon if we assume it to be a Strela. (Which, like the “armchair warlord's” suggestion, would be passive-thermally tracked and therefore both harder to spot and by default hitting the tail of the aircraft exactly as we saw.)

Who aimed it, and why? And would an official investigation even reveal the truth? Would that be reported to the public accurately?

A small group of Kuwaiti soldiers or even an individual officer less than enthused with Zionism could cause a “mistake” with, perhaps, plausible deniability when opportunity knocks. Pro-Iranian sleeper cells could have weapons of their own. Etc. etc.